Towards a HAB forecast service in the Galician region

We will present the recent developments of our forecasting capabilities to warn of impending harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Galicia, where aquaculture has a strong socio-economic impact. A HAB warning service for monitoring agencies and the aquaculture industry has been developed as a demonstration of a Copernicus marine downstream service coupled to the MyOcean service. In this contribution, we describe the Galician ASIMUTH forecast system and demonstrate its skill in predicting HAB transport and its usefulness to provide assessment for the management of the areas affected by toxic outbreaks. We also describe the Galician pilot HAB bulletins, aimed at distributing forecasts of HAB events that might induce closures of harvesting areas or, when the areas are already closed, at giving information on forthcoming oceanographic conditions that could favour or hamper the opening of an area. Our results show that the model forecasts and the bulletins can provide early warning of the risk of Dinophysis spp. events and the risk of closures linked to the presence of toxins above regulatory levels in harvesting areas.Instituto Español de Oceanografí