The Trend and Pattern of Cereal Production, Consumption and Trade in the Sudan during 1961-95

Page(s): 8 (2), 144-160,21 RefCereal grains are the most important calorie source in the Sudanese diet. An understanding of cereals' production characteristics in the Sudan is important for maintaining efficient and sustainable agricultural and food production. This paper analyses Sudanese cereals by examining trends in their production, consumption, and trade during the past four decades, and identifies the elements that might affect future production and import demand. The focus was on sorghum, wheat and millet. Data were collected from the production and trade yearbooks of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) for various years. The findings showed that the expansion of arable land did not bring about the expected increase in production. Also, the total cereal consumption rose at an average annual rate higher than the production rate. To meet the shortfall between cereal consumption and production, cereal imports, especially wheat, increased. Wheat imports have exerted a heavy burden on the Sudan's meagre and deteriorating foreign exchange resources and have worsened its negative trade balance. Therefore, the domestic resources for wheat production should be fully utilised. The gap between potential yield and farmers' yield levels needs to be closed. Price incentives are also a critical element if producers are to be motivated to achieve higher yield and output levels. It is broader than just that of increasing the nominal price of a given crop.Khartoum University Pres