Water resources carrying capacity of arid inland river basin based on system dynamics model, China

Water resources carrying capacity is the important composition of each natural resources carrying capacity during the sustainable development of a county or a district. Water resources shortage has been the main factor limiting the sustainable development because of the fragile ecologic environment and the laggard economic development. Based on the principle and method of system dynamics, this paper sets up system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in and inland river basin, discusses the relationships of each subsystem, analyzes and protracts four flow charts including water resources, industry, agriculture and population, and explains the feedback relationships of different variables within the system, which are helpful for confirming the optimizing strategy and mode of water resources sustainable utilization by computer simulation, and the purpose is to supply decision-making basis and theoretical guidance for water resources exploitation and utilization, socio-economic development and ecologic environment protection and programming