The ANALYSIS ON THE EVAPORATION AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH XINJIANG

本文根据北疆地区20个具有代表性的标准气象台站建站以来的数据资料，使用1960-2000年的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸发量的观测记录，分析了北疆地区气温、降水、蒸发的变化趋势、空间差异。为了准确的检测周期和突变，采用了建站以来数据资料。在对气温、降水和蒸发之间的关系分析基础上，利用干旱指标对北疆地区的干湿变化进行研究。结果表明北疆地区气温升高显著。降水量呈增加趋势。气候变暖的季节主要在冬季，降水偏多主要是在冬季和夏季。北疆地区年平均蒸发量呈显著的下降趋势。北疆地区蒸发量以夏季和春季下降趋势显著，秋季蒸发量减小的趋势不显著，冬季蒸发量为上升趋势，趋势显著。北疆多年气温平均序列最大嫡谱分析表明存在10年左右主周期和2.67年左右次周期，对降水量的最大熵谱和功率谱分析表明降水量的变化存在16、11、5、2-3年周期。北疆地区年蒸发量序列存在6．29和3年左右的周期。用Monn-Kendall法和累积距平法对气温、降水量、蒸发量序列突变点检测表明北疆地区年气温序列变化存在1987年产生突变和1976年发生突变以及气温升高无突变三中类型。对降水量的突变分析发现不存在突变点，降水量模比系数5年滑动平均分析初步可以认为70年代末期至80年代初期出现了降水量增加的气候转湿润的迹象。北疆蒸发量年平均值序列1986年出现突变，但蒸发量突变年后的减少趋势并不显著。不同台站蒸发量年均值序列的突变点有所不同。北疆地区的温度变化存在纬度地带性和非地带性的并存规律，即从阿尔泰山南坡到天山北坡，温度增加的幅度依纬度的降低而减小，伊犁地区和古尔班通古特沙漠表现出非地带性粗律。、降水量增加主要在伊犁地区，天山北坡中段（乌鲁木齐、木垒）以及阿勒泰东南部。蒸发量减少主要在阿勒泰东南部，天山北坡中段（乌鲁木齐、吉木萨尔）以及伊犁地区。北疆地区气温同蒸发量呈微弱的正相关关系，降水量同蒸发量为显著的负相关关系。气候干旱指标分析表明80年代以来气候波动加剧，但是气候是否转为湿润还无定论。基于气温、降水、蒸发的时空变化分析认为，90年代以来在北天山中段（乌鲁木齐、木垒）、伊犁地区相对其它地区较为湿润。In this paper, the character of climate change in north Xinjiang is analyzed based on the observed data of monthly evaporation, monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation collected at 20 basic meteorological stations since the station had built. We analyzed the trend, temporal and spatial variation of climate change use the data from 1960 to 2000. In order to check the abrupt point and period we use the data science the stations have record. We also analyzed the relation between temperature, precipitation, and evaporation. The result shows that, except Aletai, Wenquan and Urumqi, other stations have significantly increased in temperature. Precipitation also shows increasing but not so significant. Air temperature was increasing in winter. Precipitation was increasing in winter and summer. The evaporation of annual average of all the stations show the evaporation have decreased significantly. Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of annual average temperature discover 10 years and 2.67 years period. Spectrum Analysis and Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of precipitation show 16, 11, 5, 2~3 years period. Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of evaporation shows 6.29, 3 year period. In order to check the abrupt point of temperature, precipitation and evaporation, we use Mann-Kendall method and Cumulative departure method. The conclusion as follow: temperature checking result has three types, one is 1976 as the abrupt point; the other one is 1987; the last type have no abrupt point. Precipitation abrupt point analysis finds no abrupt point. Mould to coefficient five years moving shows at 1980s the precipitation significantly increase. Evaporation abrupt point analysis shows the abrupt point of average evaporation of north Xinjiang is 1986 .Spatial analysis discovers the temperature's amplitude increase little by little with the latitude heightening. Zonation and azonation coexist in the north Xinjiang; Spatial analysis of Precipitation and evaporation discover that in the middle part of north slope of Tianshan Mountain southeast of Tachen area and Yili area both precipitation and evaporation have got more favorable result to humidification. We also analyzed the relation between temperature, precipitation, and evaporation. Temperature and evaporation have positive con-elation but nor significant. Precipitation and temperature have significantly negative correlation. The drought index of climate analysis can not make sure whether the climate has changed more humid or not. Basis on the temperature, precipitation and evaporation's temporal and special analysis we think in the middle part of north slope of Tianshan Mountains, including Urumuqi and Yili area get more humectation than other place