Interfirm Mobility, Wages, and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S.

In this paper, we follow on the seminal work of Altonji and Shakotko (1987) and Topel (1991) and reinvestigate the returns to seniority in the U.S. These papers specify a wage function, in which workers’ wages can change through two channels: (a) returns to their seniority; and (b) returns to their labor market experience. We start from the same wage equation as in previous studies, and, following our theoretical model, we explicitly include a participation-employment equation and an interfirm mobility equation. The employment and mobility decisions define the individual’s experience and seniority. Because experience and seniority are fully endogenized, we introduce into the wage equation a summary of the workers’ entire career and past jobs. The three-equation system is estimated simultaneously using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). For all three education groups that we study, returns to seniority are quite high, even higher than what was previously obtained by Topel. On the other hand, the returns to experience appear to be similar to those previously found in the literature.wage mobility, interfirm mobility, returns to seniority, panel data, Markov Chain, Monte Carlo methods