Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 1

The power transfer potential for bringing renewable energy into the Southeast in response to a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors. This interim report examines how the commonly used EIA NEMS and EPRI NESSIE energy equilibrium models are considering such power transfers. Using regional estimates of capacity expansion and demand, a base case for 2008, 2020 and 2030 are compared relative to generation mix, renewable deployments, planned power transfers, and meeting RPS goals. The needed amounts of regional renewable energy to comply with possible RPS levels are compared to inter-regional transmission capacities to establish a baseline available for import into the Southeast and other regions. Gaps in the renewable generation available to meet RPS requirements are calculated. The initial finding is that the physical capability for transferring renewable energy into the SE is only about 10% of what would be required to meet a 20% RPS. Issues that need to be addressed in future tasks with respect to modeling are the current limitations for expanding renewable capacity and generation in one region to meet the demand in another and the details on transmission corridors required to deliver the power