QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTIES IN GROUND MOTION SIMULATIONS FOR SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES ON THE HAYWARD-RODGERS CREEK FAULT SYSTEM USING THE USGS 3D VELOCITY MODEL AND REALISTIC PSEUDODYNAMIC RUPTURE MODELS

This project seeks to compute ground motions for large (M>6.5) scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault using realistic pseudodynamic ruptures, the USGS three-dimensional (3D) velocity model and anelastic finite difference simulations on parallel computers. We will attempt to bound ground motions by performing simulations with suites of stochastic rupture models for a given scenario on a given fault segment. The outcome of this effort will provide the average, spread and range of ground motions that can be expected from likely large earthquake scenarios. The resulting ground motions will be based on first-principles calculations and include the effects of slip heterogeneity, fault geometry and directivity, however, they will be band-limited to relatively low-frequency (< 1 Hz)