Turkey Energy and Environmental Review - Task 7 Energy Sector Modeling : Executive Summary.

Turkey's demand for energy and electricity is increasing rapidly. Since 1990, energy consumption has increased at an annual average rate of 4.3%. As would be expected, the rapid expansion of energy production and consumption has brought with it a wide range of environmental issues at the local, regional and global levels. With respect to global environmental issues, Turkey's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown along with its energy consumption. Emissions in 2000 reached 211 million metric tons. With GDP projected to grow at over 6% per year over the next 25 years, both the energy sector and the pollution associated with it are expected to increase substantially. This is expected to occur even if assuming stricter controls on lignite and hard coal-fired power generation. All energy consuming sectors, that is, power, industrial, residential, and transportation, will contribute to this increased emissions burden. Turkish Government authorities charged with managing the fundamental problem of carrying on economic development while protecting the environment include the Ministry of Environment (MOE), the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR), and the Ministry of Health, as well as the Turkish Electricity Generation & Transmission Company (TEAS). The World Bank, working with these agencies, is planning to assess the costs and benefits of various energy policy alternatives under an Energy and Environment Review (EER). Eight individual studies have been conducted under this activity to analyze certain key energy technology issues and use this analysis to fill in the gaps in data and technical information. This will allow the World Bank and Turkish authorities to better understand the trade-offs in costs and impacts associated with specific policy decisions. The purpose of Task 7-Energy Sector Modeling, is to integrate information obtained in other EER tasks and provide Turkey's policy makers with an integrated systems analysis of the various options for addressing the various energy and environmental concerns. The work presented in this report builds on earlier analyses presented at the COP 6 conference in Bonn