Large releases from CO2 storage reservoirs: Analogs, scenarios,and modeling needs

While the purpose of geologic storage in deep salineformations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential existsfor CO2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward alongpermeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. In this paper, weevaluate the potential for such CO2 discharges based on the analysis ofnatural analogs, where large releases of gas have been observed. We areparticularly interested in circumstances that could generate sudden,possibly self enhancing release events. The probability for such eventsmay be low, but the circumstances under which they occur and thepotential consequences need to be evaluated in order to designappropriate site-selection and risk-managementstrategies. Numericalmodeling of hypothetical test cases is suggested to determine criticalconditions for large CO2 releases, to evaluate whether such conditionsmay be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, toevaluate the potential impacts of such events as well as designappropriate mitigation strategies