Examining Hydrogen Transitions.

This report describes the results of an effort to identify key analytic issues associated with modeling a transition to hydrogen as a fuel for light duty vehicles, and using insights gained from this effort to suggest ways to improve ongoing modeling efforts. The study reported on here examined multiple hydrogen scenarios reported in the literature, identified modeling issues associated with those scenario analyses, and examined three DOE-sponsored hydrogen transition models in the context of those modeling issues. The three hydrogen transition models are HyTrans (contractor: Oak Ridge National Laboratory), MARKAL/DOE* (Brookhaven National Laboratory), and NEMS-H2 (OnLocation, Inc). The goals of these models are (1) to help DOE improve its R&D effort by identifying key technology and other roadblocks to a transition and testing its technical program goals to determine whether they are likely to lead to the market success of hydrogen technologies, (2) to evaluate alternative policies to promote a transition, and (3) to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative pathways to hydrogen development