Taking ASCI supercomputing to the end game.

The ASCI supercomputing program is broadly defined as running physics simulations on progressively more powerful digital computers. What happens if we extrapolate the computer technology to its end? We have developed a model for key ASCI computations running on a hypothetical computer whose technology is parameterized in ways that account for advancing technology. This model includes technology information such as Moore's Law for transistor scaling and developments in cooling technology. The model also includes limits imposed by laws of physics, such as thermodynamic limits on power dissipation, limits on cooling, and the limitation of signal propagation velocity to the speed of light. We apply this model and show that ASCI computations will advance smoothly for another 10-20 years to an 'end game' defined by thermodynamic limits and the speed of light. Performance levels at the end game will vary greatly by specific problem, but will be in the Exaflops to Zetaflops range for currently anticipated problems. We have also found an architecture that would be within a constant factor of giving optimal performance at the end game. This architecture is an evolutionary derivative of the mesh-connected microprocessor (such as ASCI Red Storm or IBM Blue Gene/L). We provide designs for the necessary enhancement to microprocessor functionality and the power-efficiency of both the processor and memory system. The technology we develop in the foregoing provides a 'perfect' computer model with which we can rate the quality of realizable computer designs, both in this writing and as a way of designing future computers. This report focuses on classical computers based on irreversible digital logic, and more specifically on algorithms that simulate space computing, irreversible logic, analog computers, and other ways to address stockpile stewardship that are outside the scope of this report