Preliminary Evaluation of Drift Seepage Model Using SeepageInformation from the ESF South Ramp at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The overall objective of this study is to examine whether the modeling approach employed to estimate seepage into waste emplacement drifts yields results that are consistent with the observed seepage in the ESF South Ramp. It is important to realize that the modeling study reported here is not an attempt to predict, reproduce, or analyze the South Ramp seepage data. Such an effort would require the development of a specific model and a specific characterization and analysis approach best suited for capturing the hydrogeologic conditions in the South Ramp as they prevailed before and during the period of the seepage observations. Instead, the conceptual framework and analysis approach developed for the estimation of long-term seepage into waste emplacement drifts in the Topopah Spring unit is used with minimal adjustments to examine whether the results of the probabilistic approach employed in the TSPA-LA (which considers uncertainty and spatial variability in fracture permeability, capillary strength, and local percolation flux) would provide reasonable seepage estimates, even if applied to the conditions in the South Ramp. If so, confidence can be gained that the TSPA-LA approach captures the processes relevant for the prediction of natural seepage into large underground openings