Wind Plant Capacity Credit Variations: A Comparison of Results Using Multiyear Actual and Simulated Wind-Speed Data

Although it is widely recognized that variations in annual wind energy capture can be significant, it is not clear how significant this effect is on accurately calculating the capacity credit of a wind plant. An important question is raised concerning whether one year of wind data is representative of long-term patters. This report calculates the range of capacity credit measures based on 13 years of actual wind-speed data. The results are compared to those obtained with synthetic data sets that are based on one year of data. Although the use of synthetic data sets is a considerable improvement over single-estimate techniques, this report finds that the actual inter-annual variation in capacity credit is still understated by the synthetic data technique