Transportation Energy Futures Series: Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation