Evolution Of USDOE Performance Assessments Over 20 Years

Performance assessments (PAs) have been used for many years for the analysis of post-closure hazards associated with a radioactive waste disposal facility and to provide a reasonable expectation of the ability of the site and facility design to meet objectives for the protection of members of the public and the environment. The use of PA to support decision-making for LLW disposal facilities has been mandated in United States Department of Energy (USDOE) directives governing radioactive waste management since 1988 (currently DOE Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management). Prior to that time, PAs were also used in a less formal role. Over the past 20+ years, the USDOE approach to conduct, review and apply PAs has evolved into an efficient, rigorous and mature process that includes specific requirements for continuous improvement and independent reviews. The PA process has evolved through refinement of a graded and iterative approach designed to help focus efforts on those aspects of the problem expected to have the greatest influence on the decision being made. Many of the evolutionary changes to the PA process are linked to the refinement of the PA maintenance concept that has proven to be an important element of USDOE PA requirements in the context of supporting decision-making for safe disposal of LLW. The PA maintenance concept represents the evolution of the graded and iterative philosophy and has helped to drive the evolution of PAs from a deterministic compliance calculation into a systematic approach that helps to focus on critical aspects of the disposal system in a manner designed to provide a more informed basis for decision-making throughout the life of a disposal facility (e.g., monitoring, research and testing, waste acceptance criteria, design improvements, data collection, model refinements). A significant evolution in PA modeling has been associated with improved use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques to support efficient implementation of the graded and iterative approach. Rather than attempt to exactly predict the migration of radionuclides in a disposal unit, the best PAs have evolved into tools that provide a range of results to guide decision-makers in planning the most efficient, cost effective, and safe disposal of radionuclides