Grid Parity for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities; Preprint

In this report, we analyze PV break-even costs for U.S. residential customers. We evaluate some key drivers of grid parity both regionally and over time. We also examine the impact of moving from flat to time-of-use (TOU) rates, and we evaluate individual components of the break-even cost, including effect of rate structure and various incentives. Finally, we examine how PV markets might evolve on a regional basis considering the sensitivity of the break-even cost to four major drivers: technical performance, financing parameters, electricity prices and rates, and policies. We find that electricity price rather than technical parameters are in general the key drivers of the break-even cost of PV. Additionally, this analysis provides insight about the potential viability of PV markets