Predicting Latino Male Student Retention: the Effect of Psychosocial Variables on Persistence for First-year College Students at a Southwest University

The purpose of this study was to investigate and predict Latino male student retention using ACT’s Engage College survey at a research university in the southwestern region of the U.S. ACT’s Engage survey was designed to predict first-year college retention using 10 psychosocial measures. However, no empirical study exists to support ACT’s claim especially for Latino male students. Data from a four-year research university between 2009 and 2011 were analyzed with logistic regression. Logistic regression analysis was performed for the whole sample (N = 8,061) and for the Latino male subsample (n = 860). In the entire sample’s first regression model, high school grade quartile and SAT score as well as demographic variables were used as predictor variables. In this model, the independent variables of high school grade point average quartile, SAT score, gender, and race made statistically significant contributions to the model (Nagelkerke R2 = .031, p < .01). In the entire sample’s second regression model, ACT’s 10 psychosocial variables were added to the first regression model as predictor variables. Results indicated the instrument was valid for the freshmen as a whole because five out of 10 psychosocial measures displayed statistically significant odds ratios (ORs) for predicting retention: (a) Commitment to College (OR = 1.006, p < .01), (b) Academic Discipline (OR = 1.005, p < .01), (c) Social Activity (OR = -.997, p < .01), (d) Social Connection (OR = 1.004, p < .01), and (e) Academic Self-Confidence (OR = -.997, p < .01). Regarding the subsample of 860 Latino males, none of the 10 psychosocial measures produced statistically significant results. The findings indicate the need to determine a new way of identifying at-risk Latino male students because current methods have failed to build a robust predictive model for this student population