Probabilistic Approach to Site Characterization: MIU site, Tono Region, Japan

Geostatistical simulation is used to extrapolate data derived from site characterization activities at the MIU site into information describing the three-dimensional distribution of hydraulic conductivity at the site and the uncertainty in the estimates of hydraulic conductivity. This process is demonstrated for six different data sets representing incrementally increasing amounts of characterization data. Short horizontal ranges characterize the spatial variability of both the rock types (facies) and the hydraulic conductivity measurements. For each of the six data sets, 50 geostatistical realizations of the facies and 50 realizations of the hydraulic conductivity are combined to produce 50 final realizations of the hydraulic conductivity distribution. Analysis of these final realizations indicates that the mean hydraulic conductivity value increases with the addition of site characterization data. The average hydraulic conductivity as a function of elevation changes from a uniform profile to a profile showing relatively high hydraulic conductivity values near the top and bottom of the simulation domain. Three-dimensional uncertainty maps show the highest amount of uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity distribution near the top and bottom of the model. These upper and lower areas of high uncertainty are interpreted to be due to the unconformity at the top of the granitic rocks and the Tsukyoshi fault respectively