The role of interruptible natural gas customers in New England heating oil markets: A preliminary examination of events in January-February 2000

This report provides an analysis of data collected from gas service providers and end-use customers in the six New England States and offers a preliminary assessment of the impact of interruptible gas customers on the distillate fuel oil market this past winter. Based on information collected and analyzed as of October 2000, the main findings areas follows: (1) For interruptible gas customers with distillate fuel oil as a backup fuel, their volume of interruptions was equivalent to about 1 to 2 percent of the total sales of distillate fuel oil in New England during January-February 2000. For the two peak weeks of gas supply interruptions, however, the equivalent volume of distillate fuel oil amounted to an estimated 3 to 6 percent of total sales in New England. There were no interruptions of the natural gas service during the 2-month period. (2) Purchases of distillate fuel oil by interruptible gas customers may have contributed somewhat to the spike in the price of distillate fuel oil in January-February 2000, especially during the peak weeks of gas interruptions. Nevertheless, other factors--a sudden drop in temperatures, low regional stocks of distillate fuels, and weather-related supply problems during a period of high customer demand--appear to have played a significant role in this price spike, as they have in previous spikes. (3) While this preliminary analysis suggests that interruptible natural gas service does not threaten the stability of the home heating oil market, several steps might be taken-without undermining the benefits of interruptible service--to reduce the potential adverse impacts of gas supply interruptions in times of market stress. Regardless of the magnitude of the impact of distillate fuel oil purchases by interruptible gas customers on Northeast heating oil markets, the threat of future heating oil price spikes and supply problems still remains. To help counter the threat, President Clinton in July 2000 directed Secretary Richardson to establish a heating oil component of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the Northeast, and 2 million barrels of heating oil are now stored in the reserve. Other possible policy options are outlined