Potential for AP600 in-vessel retention through ex-vessel flooding

External reactor vessel cooling (ERVC) is a new severe accident management strategy that involves flooding the reactor cavity to submerge the reactor vessel in an attempt to cool core debris that has relocated to the vessel lower head. Advanced and existing light water reactors (LWRs) are considering ERVC as an accident management strategy for in-vessel retention (IVR) of relocated debris. In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the AP600 design, Westinghouse credits ERVC for preventing vessel failure during postulated severe accidents with successful reactor coolant system (RCS) depressurization and reactor cavity flooding. To support the Westinghouse position on IVR, DOE contracted the University of California--Santa Barbara (UCSB) to produce the peer-reviewed report. To assist in the NRC`s evaluation of IVR of core melt by ex-vessel flooding of the AP6OO, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) was tasked to perform: An in-depth critical review of the UCSB study and the model that UCSB used to assess ERVC effectiveness; An in-depth review of the UCSB study peer review comments and of UCSB`s resolution method to identify areas where technical concerns weren`t addressed; and An independent analysis effort to investigate the impact of residual concerns on the margins to failure and conclusions presented in the UCSB study. This report summarizes results from these tasks. As discussed in Sections 1.1 and 1.2, INEEL`s review of the UCSB study and peer reviewer comments suggested that additional analysis was needed to assess: (1) the integral impact of peer reviewer-suggested changes to input assumptions and uncertainties and (2) the challenge present by other credible debris configurations. Section 1.3 summarized the corresponding analysis approach developed by INEEL. The remainder of this report provides more detailed descriptions of analysis methodology, input assumptions, and results