Beyond Kargil: The technology of peace in India-Pakistan border relations

The potential for cooperation between India and Pakistan is substantial. Topics as widely varying as national security, the environment and trade hold the potential for improved bilateral relations. This paper looks at a few areas in which monitoring technology could contribute to enhancing cooperative border agreements between the two nations. The goal of the paper is not to provide prescriptive solutions to regional problems, but to expand the number of options being considered for improving Indian-Pakistan relations. Many of the impediments to bilateral progress are a result of a history of conflict and mistrust. By utilizing technical monitoring and inspections, each side can begin to replace suspicion and doubt with knowledge and information useful in making informed political, economic and military decisions. At the same time, technical monitoring and inspections can build confidence through common interactions. India and Pakistan have pledged to resolve their disputes, including Kashmir, through dialogue. Implementation of that pledge is influenced by a number of factors, including changes in the political systems and the fortunes of the leadership. Events of the past year and a half have severely tested these two governments' ability to move forward along a constructive and positive path. Testing of new missile systems both preceded and followed testing of nuclear weapons in May 1998. Both countries disregarded subsequent international displeasure as they proceeded to openly declare their respective nuclear capability. Their brief engagement with each other in February 1999 and movement toward a rapprochement diluted international condemnation of their nuclear activity. Within a recent period of nine months however, progress in the dialogue has been stalled first by the Pakistani move in Kashmir in May 1999, then by the Indian election in the summer of 1999 and most recently by the military coup in Pakistan