Reliability Degradation Due to Stockpile Aging

The objective of this reseach is the investigation of alternative methods for characterizing the reliability of systems with time dependent failure modes associated with stockpile aging. Reference to 'reliability degradation' has, unfortunately, come to be associated with all types of aging analyes: both deterministic and stochastic. In this research, in keeping with the true theoretical definition, reliability is defined as a probabilistic description of system performance as a funtion of time. Traditional reliability methods used to characterize stockpile reliability depend on the collection of a large number of samples or observations. Clearly, after the experiments have been performed and the data has been collected, critical performance problems can be identified. A Major goal of this research is to identify existing methods and/or develop new mathematical techniques and computer analysis tools to anticipate stockpile problems before they become critical issues. One of the most popular methods for characterizing the reliability of components, particularly electronic components, assumes that failures occur in a completely random fashion, i.e. uniformly across time. This method is based primarily on the use of constant failure rates for the various elements that constitute the weapon system, i.e. the systems do not degrade while in storage. Experience has shown that predictions based upon this approach should be regarded with great skepticism since the relationship between the life predicted and the observed life has been difficult to validate. In addition to this fundamental problem, the approach does not recognize that there are time dependent material properties and variations associated with the manufacturing process and the operational environment. To appreciate the uncertainties in predicting system reliability a number of alternative methods are explored in this report. All of the methods are very different from those currently used to assess stockpile reliability, but have been used extensively in various forms outside Sandia National Laboratories. It is hoped that this report will encourage the use of 'nontraditional' reliabilty and uncertainty techniques in gaining insight into stockpile reliability issues