Methodology for uncertainty estimation of Hanford tank chemical and radionuclide inventories and concentrations

The exact physical and chemical nature of 55 million gallons of toxic waste held in 177 underground waste tanks at the Hanford Site is not known with sufficient detail to support the safety, retrieval, and immobilization missions presented to Hanford. The Hanford Best Basis team has made point estimates of the inventories in each tank. The purpose of this study is to estimate probability distributions for each of the 71 analytes and 177 tanks that the Hanford Best Basis team has made point estimates for. This will enable uncertainty intervals to be calculated for the Best Basis inventories and should facilitate the safety, retrieval, and immobilization missions. Section 2 of this document describes the overall approach used to estimate tank inventory uncertainties. Three major components are considered in this approach: chemical concentration, density, and waste volume. Section 2 also describes the two different methods used to evaluate the tank wastes in terms of sludges and in terms of supernatant or saltcakes. Sections 3 and 4 describe in detail the methodology to assess the probability distributions for each of the three components, as well as the data sources for implementation. The conclusions are given in Section 5