Monte Carlo source convergence and the Whitesides problem

The issue of fission source convergence in Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations is of interest because of the potential consequences of erroneous criticality safety calculations. In this work, the authors compare two different techniques to improve the source convergence behavior of standard Monte Carlo calculations applied to challenging source convergence problems. The first method, super-history powering, attempts to avoid discarding important fission sites between generations by delaying stochastic sampling of the fission site bank until after several generations of multiplication. The second method, stratified sampling of the fission site bank, explicitly keeps the important sites even if conventional sampling would have eliminated them. The test problems are variants of Whitesides' Criticality of the World problem in which the fission site phase space was intentionally undersampled in order to induce marginally intolerable variability in local fission site populations. Three variants of the problem were studied, each with a different degree of coupling between fissionable pieces. Both the superhistory powering method and the stratified sampling method were shown to improve convergence behavior, although stratified sampling is more robust for the extreme case of no coupling. Neither algorithm completely eliminates the loss of the most important fissionable piece, and if coupling is absent, the lost piece cannot be recovered unless its sites from earlier generations have been retained. Finally, criteria for measuring source convergence reliability are proposed and applied to the test problems