Lightweight materials in the light-duty passenger vehicle market: Their market penetration potential and impacts

This paper summarizes the results of a lightweight materials study. Various lightweight materials are examined and the most cost effective are selected for further analysis. Aluminum and high-performance polymer matrix composites (PMCS) are found to have the highest potential for reducing the weight of automobiles and passenger-oriented light trucks. Weight reduction potential for aluminum and carbon fiber-based PMCs are computed based on a set of component-specific replacement criteria (such as stiffness and strength), and the consequent incremental cost scenarios are developed. The authors assume that a materials R and D program successfully reduces the cost of manufacturing aluminum and carbon fiber PMC-intensive vehicles. A vehicle choice model is used to project market shares for the lightweight vehicles. A vehicle survival and age-related usage model is employed to compute energy consumption over time for the vehicle stock. After a review of projected costs, the following two sets of vehicles are characterized to compete with the conventional materials vehicles: (1) aluminum vehicles with limited replacement providing 19% weight reduction (AIV-Mid), and (2) aluminum vehicles with the maximum replacement providing 31% weight reduction (AIV-Max). Assuming mass-market introduction in 2005, the authors project a national petroleum energy savings of 3% for AIV-Mid and 5% for AIV-Max in 2030