Seismic hazard evaluation for Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservations, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This study presents the results of an investigation of seismic hazard at the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservations (K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratories, and Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant), located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Oak Ridge is located in eastern Tennessee, in an area of moderate to high historical seismicity. Results from two separate seismic hazard analyses are presented. The EPRI/SOG analysis uses the input data and methodology developed by the Electric Power Research Institute, under the sponsorship of several electric utilities, for the evaluation of seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States. The LLNL analysis uses the input data and methodology developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Both the EPRI/SOG and LLNL studies characterize earth-science uncertainty on the causes and characteristics of earthquakes in the central and eastern United States. This is accomplished by considering multiple hypotheses on the locations and parameters of seismic source zones and by considering multiple attenuation functions for the prediction of ground shaking given earthquake size and location. These hypotheses were generated by multiple expert teams and experts. Furthermore, each team and expert was asked to generate multiple hypotheses in order to characterize his own internal uncertainty. The seismic-hazard calculations are performed for all hypotheses. Combining the results from each hypothesis with the weight associated to that hypothesis, one obtains an overall representation of the seismic hazard at the Oak Ridge site and its uncertainty