Multidisciplinary modeling and GIS for landscape management

Ecological dynamics in human-influenced landscapes are strongly affected by the socioeconomic factors that influence land-use decisions. Incorporating these factors into a spatially-explicit landscape-change model requires the integration of multidisciplinary data. We developed a model that simulates the effects of land use on landscape structure in the Little Tennessee River Basin in western North Carolina. This model uses a variety of data, including interpreted remotely-sensed imagery, census and ownership maps, topography, and results from econometric models. Data are integrated by using a geographic information system and translated into a common format, maps. Simulations generate new maps of land cover representing the amount of land-cover change that occurs. With spatially-explicit projections of landscape change, issues such as biodiversity conservation, the importance of specific landscape elements to conservation goals, and long-term landscape integrity can be addressed. In order for management to use the model to address these issues, a computer-based landscape-management decision aid is being developed. This tool integrates the models, associated data bases, and a geographic information system to facilitate the evaluation of land-use decisions and management plans. This system will estimate landscape-level consequences of alternative actions and will serve to focus coordination among different land-owners and land-use interests in managing the regional landscape