Impacts of seismic activity on long-term repository performance at Yucca Mountain

Several effects of seismic activity on the release of radionuclides from a potential repository at Yucca Mountain are quantified. Future seismic events are predicted using data from the seismic hazard analysis conducted for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Phenomenological models are developed, including rockfall (thermal-mechanical and seismic) in unbackfilled emplacement drifts, container damage caused by fault displacement within the repository, and flow-path chance caused by changes in strain. Using the composite-porosity flow model (relatively large-scale, regular percolation), seismic events show little effect on total-system releases; using the weeps flow model (episodic pulses of flow in locally saturated fractures), container damage and flow-path changes cause over an order of magnitude increase in releases. In separate calculations using, more realistic representations of faulting, water-table rise caused by seismically induced changes in strain are seen to be higher than previously estimated by others, but not sufficient to reach a potential repository