The potential for low petroleum gasoline

The Energy Policy Act requires the Secretary of Energy to determine the feasibility of producing sufficient replacement fuels to replace at least 30 percent of the projected consumption of motor fuels by light duty vehicles in the year 2010. The Act also requires the Secretary to determine the greenhouse gas implications of the use of replacement fuels. A replacement fuel is a non-petroleum portion of gasoline, including certain alcohols, ethers, and other components. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Refinery Yield Model has been used to study the cost and refinery impacts for production of {open_quotes}low petroleum{close_quotes} gasolines, which contain replacement fuels. The analysis suggests that high oxygenation is the key to meeting the replacement fuel target, and a major contributor to cost increase is investment in processes to produce and etherify light olefins. High oxygenation can also increase the costs of control of vapor pressure, distillation properties, and pollutant emissions of gasolines. Year-round low petroleum gasoline with near-30 percent non-petroleum components might be produced with cost increases of 23 to 37 cents per gallon of gasoline, and with greenhouse gas emissions changes between a 3 percent increase and a 16 percent decrease. Crude oil reduction, with decreased dependence on foreign sources, is a major objective of the low petroleum gasoline program. For year-round gasoline with near-30 percent non-petroleum components, crude oil use is reduced by 10 to 12 percent, at a cost $48 to $89 per barrel. Depending upon resolution of uncertainties about extrapolation of the Environmental Protection Agency Complex Model for pollutant emissions, availability of raw materials and other issues, costs could be lower or higher