Metropolitan New York in the greenhouse: Air quality and health effects

A variety of potential effects on human health resulting from climate change have been identified in several assessments. According to an international panel{sup 1} they include direct effects of extreme temperatures on cardiovascular deaths, secondary effects due to vector-borne diseases or crop yields, and tertiary effects such as those that might arise from conflicts over freshwater supplies. To this fist we add the secondary effects of increased air pollution, which may result either directly from climate change or indirectly from increased air conditioning loads and the corresponding pollutant emissions from electric utilities. Higher ozone concentrations have been linked to increased ambient temperatures by both theory and observations of monitoring data. A similar association with particulate matter has been limited to observations, thus far. The pollution-heat linkage has been recognized before` but health effects have not been evaluated in terms of predictions of the joint effects of both agents. This paper has been prepared in two sections. First, we discuss the ozone situation with special reference to the Northeast Corridor and New York. In the second section, we present estimates of the health effects of climate change on New York and discuss some mitigation options