Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The conceptual and computational structure of a performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. Important parts of thk structure are @ maintenance of a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertain, with stochastic uncefinty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 Y regulatory period fiat applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from `the imprecision with which many of the quantities rquired in tie `hdysis are known, (ii) use of Latin hypercttbe sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncefirtty, (iii) use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncetinty, and OV) efficient use of tie necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to SUPPOII the analysis. The WIPP is under development by the U.S. Department of Ener~ (DOE) for the geologic (i.e., deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste, with the indicated PA supporting a ~Compliance Certification Application (CCA) by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996 for tie necessary certifications for the WIPP to begin operation. If certified, the WIPP will be the first operational faciliv in tie United States for the geologic disposal of ra&oactive waste