Deterministic geologic processes and stochastic modeling

Recent outcrop sampling at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has produced significant new information regarding the distribution of physical properties at the site of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. Consideration of the spatial distribution of measured values and geostatistical measures of spatial variability indicates that there are a number of widespread deterministic geologic features at the site that have important implications for numerical modeling of such performance aspects as ground water flow and radionuclide transport. These deterministic features have their origin in the complex, yet logical, interplay of a number of deterministic geologic processes, including magmatic evolution; volcanic eruption, transport, and emplacement; post-emplacement cooling and alteration; and late-stage (diagenetic) alteration. Because of geologic processes responsible for formation of Yucca Mountain are relatively well understood and operate on a more-or-less regional scale, understanding of these processes can be used in modeling the physical properties and performance of the site. Information reflecting these deterministic geologic processes may be incorporated into the modeling program explicitly, using geostatistical concepts such as soft information, or implicitly, through the adoption of a particular approach to modeling. It is unlikely that any single representation of physical properties at the site will be suitable for all modeling purposes. Instead, the same underlying physical reality will need to be described many times, each in a manner conducive to assessing specific performance issues