Mortgage Financing: FHA and Ginnie Mae Face Risk-Management Challenges

Testimony issued by the Government Accountability Office with an abstract that begins "For the third consecutive year, the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reported that the capital ratio for the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund—the ratio of the fund’s economic value to insurance obligations—has not met the 2 percent statutory minimum. FHA cites declines in the fund’s economic value due to higher-than-expected defaults, claims, and losses. At the same time, the other component of the ratio, insurance obligations, grew rapidly. The fund’s condition also worsened from a budgetary perspective, with balances in the fund’s capital reserve account reaching new lows. If the account were depleted, FHA would require more funds to help cover costs on insurance issued to date. FHA has indicated that it will narrowly avoid this scenario in fiscal year 2012. FHA enhanced methods for assessing the fund’s financial condition but has not fully addressed GAO’s 2010 recommendation for improving the reliability of its estimates. It relies on a single economic forecast, which does not fully account for variability in future house prices and interest rates. The approach GAO recommended would simulate numerous economic paths for house prices and interest rates would improve the reliability of its capital ratio estimates.