Intelligent Discontent, Agitation, and Progress: A Time-Series Analysis of National Revolts in Central America 1960-1982

Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua have all experienced significant social, economic, and political changes during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua experienced violent national revolts, while Costa Rica and Honduras did not. I tested a process theory that endeavored to account for the origins and intensity of national revolts in Central America. The analysis was formulated in a most-similar-systems (MSS) design. Pooled cross-sectional time-series regression techniques were employed in order to conform with the MSS variation-finding strategy. The findings supported the conclusion that armed attacks against the state were not random occurrences, but rather, that they may have arisen in response to certain economic and political conditions