Employment-to-Population Ratio Goes Low: An Analysis of the Recent Aggregate Labor Market Behavior in the United States

Recently there has been a substantial decline in the employment-to-population ratio, coinciding with a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. The ratio experienced a trend increase during the post-World War II period until 1999, primarily driven by the large influx of female workers into the labor force. Although pro-cyclical, the ratio always recovered to its previous peak and subsequently went beyond that level. Following the Dot-com recession, there was a decline followed by a mild recovery from 2003 to 2007, before a significant decrease. This thesis investigates the causes of the decline, which impacts on economic policy recommendations