The Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster on Electricity Consumption: An Examination of TEPCO\u27s Daily Load Curve

This paper analyzes the effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster on Tokyo Electric Power Company’s (TEPCO) electricity load using alternative event study methodology. The data set includes TEPCO’s published hourly loads from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2011. Four time series regressions are used to analyze the disaster’s effect on TEPCO’s load curve at an hourly and aggregate level. By examining the hourly impacts of the disaster, this paper provides commentary on the effects of the disaster on the daily load curve, finding transition periods to be the time of day that is most targeted for decreases in electricity consumption. The models control for temperature, population, time of day, week, month, and year, holidays, and trends. The results indicate a significant, negative relationship between the disaster and TEPCO’s electricity load. In addition to examining the effects of the disaster on the daily load curve, four event windows are analyzed, ranging from a week after the March 11, 2011 disaster to the end of the data set (December 31, 2011). These event windows are used to capture the short, medium, and long-term effects of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster on electricity load. These event window results combined with an analysis of the annual and disaster trend variables allow for commentary on the timeline for which TEPCO’s loads will reach pre-disaster levels. Additionally, the results provide insight into both the economic and political implications of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster both in Japan and worldwide