The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis, because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecastersRational Expectations, Panel, Loss Function, Forecast, Interest Rate.
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
This paper contributes to the growing literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation format...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted und...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts an...
This paper contributes to the growing literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation format...
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted und...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial ...
This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey...
Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a m...