Transport energy modeling with meta-heuristic harmony search algorithm, an application to Turkey

This study proposes a new method for estimating transport energy demand using a harmony search (HS) approach. HArmony Search Transport Energy Demand Estimation (HASTEDE) models are developedtaking population, gross domestic product and vehicle kilometers as an input. The HASTEDE models are in forms of linear, exponential and quadratic mathematical expressions and they are applied to Turkish Transportation sector energy consumption. Optimum or near-optimum values of the HS parameters are obtained with sensitivity analysis (SA). Performance of all models is compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projections. Results showed that HS algorithm may be used for energy modeling, but SA is required to obtain best values of the HS parameters. The quadratic form of HASTEDE will overestimate transport sector energy consumption by about 26% and linear and exponential forms underestimate by about 21% when they are compared with the MENR projections. This may happen due to the modeling procedure and selected parameters for models, but determining the upper and lower values of transportation sector energy consumption will provide a framework and flexibility for setting up energy policies.