Combined effects of temperature, pH and water activity on predictive ability of microbial kinetic inactivation model

It is well known that temperature is the key factor controlling the microbial survival/inactivation. However, the interactive effects of further stressing environmental conditions may influence microbial inactivation behaviour. The objective of this work was to include, in the inactivation model, temperature, pH and water activity effects using a black box polynomial model, aiming at accurate prediction. Experimental data of Listeria innocua obtained within the temperature range of 52.5 and 65.0 °C, pH of 4.5, 6.0 and 7.5, and water activity of 0.95 and 0.99 were used for model assessment. A Gompertz-inspired model for microbial inactivation was used, with shoulder period, maximum inactivation rate and tail as parameters. The relations of such parameters with temperature, water activity and pH were purely empirical and assumed to be polynomials. When these mathematical relationships were included in the primary kinetic model, accurate predictions of the inactivation data were attained, thus validating the predictive ability of the model expressed in terms of the stressing environmental factors studied. © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of Department of Food Science, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas