Stock Traders’ Level of Confidence, Herding Behavior and Trading Performance

[[abstract]]本研究使用臺灣證券交易所的歷史交易資料來計算投資人的交易自信程度與從眾指標，檢測雙方的相關性以及二者與交易績效之間的關係。結果說明交易自信程度較高的投資人比較有可能從事個股從眾；比較不會從事整體市場從眾。自信程度較高的專業經理人與一般投資人，報酬表現皆有好有壞，不會因為專業經理人持有資訊較多而使其報酬總是優於一般投資人。個股從眾與報酬為正向相關，表示特定股票的從眾能帶來好的績效表現；整體市場從眾在短期的績效表現不佳，但是長期會有反轉的趨勢，績效表現是好的。[[abstract]]We use data of Taiwan Stock Exchange to estimate the level of confidence and herding and detect the relation between confidence, herding and return. We find investors who have high level of confidence will more likely herd on specific stocks rather than market herding. The performances of high-level-confidence individual or institute investors are probably good or bad, though institute investors always have more information than individual. Stock herding and return have positive correlation. It indicates that herd on specific stock will be good for performance. Market herding at short term has bad performance, but it will reverse at long term.[[note]]碩