Evaluating the inbound visitor effect of Tourism Policies in Taiwan by Difference in Difference Method

[[abstract]]世界觀光組織(World Tourism Organization, WTO)指出近年來觀光旅遊活動已成為許多國家外匯的主要來源，而這正也是我國近年來極力推動發展的產業，因此本研究主要探討政府觀光政策對入境觀光客人次的影響，以差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Difference Method，DID）分析政策實施前後來臺觀光客人次增加之效果，研究期間為1999到2013年。研究結果發現：1).觀光客倍增計畫中的國際觀光推廣宣傳確實帶來了正向顯著的影響，但是整體計畫卻未達到原先計畫設立的目標人次。2).日韓觀光代言人的效果十分顯著，也創造了巨額的觀光效益，算是十分成功。3).雖然東南亞的觀光客人次有增加，但由於代言人與國籍的交乘項結果並不顯著，而GDP呈現正向顯著的效果，由此推論東南亞觀光客人次的增加，可能歸功於近十年來東南亞經濟成長的結果。[[abstract]]World Tourism Organization pointed out that tourism activities have become a major source of foreign exchange in many countries in recent years. Because of this, Taiwan government has been strongly promoting the development of the industry. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of government tourism policies, and this study adopts Difference-in-Difference method to analyze the tourism data from 1999 to 2013. The results show: 1). Doubling Tourist Plan in international tourism promotion have brought significant positive impact, but failed to reach the original plan. 2). The effect of endorsers in Japan and Korea is very significant, and also created a huge tourism benefit. The result indicates that the promotion is quite successful. 3). Although the visitors are increased from Southeast Asia, the promotion impact is not significant. The GDP variable shows a significant positive effect, which may be attributed to the Southeast Asian economic growth over the past decade.[[note]]碩