Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?

This paper reexamines evidence on M2 demand cointegration in the postwar United States. Equilibrium relations between M2 and various sets of its determinants are analyzed using quarterly observations from 1959:1 to 1988:4, 1990:4, and 1993:4 based on three different testing methods. For earlier subsamples, mixed results are obtained suggesting both cointegration and no cointegration. For the full sample, however, virtually no evidence supports cointegration. Accordingly, a M2 error-correction model is no longer appropriate to investigate short-run dynamics of business fluctuations in the 1990s. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.