Contingent valuation and real referendum behaviour,

This paper compares contingent values for a hypothetical landscape protection programme with respondents’ voting behaviour in an actual referendum. We use the example of a proposed increase of expenditures for landscape protection in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. In particular we examine (i) CVM bid magnitudes of the different voter groups, (ii) relationships between qualitative response categories, (iii) consistency of responses assuming tax increases are known, and (iv) associations with socio-economic characteristics. Results suggest a strong upward bias of hypothetical values, possibly indicating that many respondents failed to realistically consider their budget constraints in the hypothetical choice situation.Contingent valuation; external validity; public goods; referendum voting