The demand for reliable travel: evidence from Los Angeles, and implications for public transit policy

2015-07-10This dissertation uses data from the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region to demonstrate how our demand for reliable or predictable travel conditions determines, in part, our transportation mode choice. The research extends empirical literature on travel time reliability that has so far analyzed how the demand for reliability affects trip scheduling and automobile route choice. Through a series of independent empirical studies that use different methods, this dissertation investigates how the reliability of public transit, independently and relative to other mobility choices, influences the individual decision to consume transit and in turn aggregate service consumption. Findings suggest that there is significant demand for reliable transit service, and that good-quality transit can attract latent demand in specific situations such as high-demand congested corridors during peak periods. In addition to contributing to the travel reliability literature, the dissertation identifies the conditions that potentially make transit both competitive with the auto mode and more productive as an industry