'Exit' in Deeply Divided Societies: Regimes of Discrimination in Estonia and Latvia and the Potential for Russophone Migration

Hirschman's model of 'exit' envisages that mass migration can communicate feedback to a state and elicit modifying policy behaviour. The regimes of discrimination against Russophones in Estonia and Latvia are examined to demonstrate that in certain conditions of inter-ethnic conflict, the model does not work as predicted. In deeply divided societies the mass migration of a minority can be intentionally promoted by a majority regime of discrimination. In such conditions, migration may operate as a safety valve to release the build-up of minority antagonisms. Given the limitations of international conditionality and the poor prospects for integration or assimilation, this article predicts a significant out-migration by Russophones to other EU Member States when restrictions on freedom of movement are eased after the transitional period. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.