Mapping out the transition toward information societies: social nature, growth, and policies

2012-11-29This research thesis sheds lights on different aspects of the transition toward information societies. It consists of a collection of interrelated studies that analyze in more rigorous terms three main and complementary aspects of the transition (see Figure below). After and introductory CHAPTER ONE, the consecutive CHAPTER TWO of this thesis looks at the social nature of the current transition toward the information society, which is characterized by a diffusion process that is known as digital divide. This chapter focuses on the socio-demographic characteristics of the transition, and characterizes its bottlenecks, such as the cost-income relation of ICT and users, as well as its opportunities, such as the opportunity to fight long-standing gender inequalities. CHAPTER THREE focuses not only on equality, but also on growth of the world’s information and communication capacity in absolute terms. The chapter consists of two sections that quantify the magnitude and growth of information in the information society, measured directly in bits and bytes. This provides insights into the speed and general pattern of the transition from analog to digital information processing in society. Both chapters combined provide complementary insights into what have been traditionally the two main pillars of socio-economic development: equity and growth. In this case the focus is set on the equality and growth of technologically mediated information. Various particularities of the transition become evident, such as the exponential rates of change of the transition, the all-pervasiveness of ICT in the social realm, and the unequal diffusion process. The final CHAPTER FOUR studies a concrete example of successful policy making in the digital age that takes these particularities into consideration. The case study focuses on a foresight Delphi exercise aimed at identifying future policy priorities that offered input into the inter-governmental negotiation of an Action Plan in Latin America. It is believed to have been the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world. The process of policy-making in this international multi-stakeholder Delphi embraces the particular characteristics of the transition toward Information Societies by design. ❧ Figure 1 Overview: “Mapping Out the Transition toward Information Societies” ❧ The Chapters consists of a collection of complementary studies, which use a diverse array of methodologies and data sources to map out diverse aspects of the transition toward this new form of socio-economic organization. The three main Chapters consist of 6 articles that have been produced during the time of my doctoral program at USC’s Annenberg School of Communication (since August 2008). Chapter Two consists of three articles (resulting in three complementary sections), Chapter Three consists of two articles, and the final Chapter Four of one article. These articles are by now all published in recognized peer-reviewed Journals, all of which are indexed in the Thomson Reuters Social Science Index. Some of these Journals are leading in their fields (such as Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the world’s leading journal in foresight studies, with a 5-year Thomson Reuters Journal Citation Impact factor of 2.2; or World Development, the world’s leading journal in international development studies, with a 5-year impact factor of 2.5), while other Journals are among the most recognized outlets for multidisciplinary science research in general (such as Science, with a 5-year impact factor of 32). Each of the articles has passed the peer-review of at least 2 specialized reviewers (most often 3 or 4), plus one editor, resulting in an estimated number of over 20 specialized and independent reviewers for this collection of articles. The articles, in their order of inclusion in this thesis, include: Hilbert, M. (2011). The end justifies the definition: The manifold outlooks on the digital divide and their practical usefulness for policy-making. Telecommunications Policy, 35(8), 715-736. doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2011.06.012 -- Hilbert, M. (2010). When is Cheap, Cheap Enough to Bridge the Digital Divide? Modeling Income Related Structural Challenges of Technology Diffusion in Latin America. World Development, 38(5), 756-770. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.11.019 -- Hilbert, M. (2011). Digital gender divide or technologically empowered women in developing countries? A typical case of lies, damned lies, and statistics. Women’s Studies International Forum, 34(6), 479-489. doi:10.1016/j.wsif.2011.07.001 -- Hilbert, M., López, P., & Vásquez, C. (2010). Information Societies or “ICT Equipment Societies?” Measuring the Digital Information-Processing Capacity of a Society in Bits and Bytes. The Information Society, 26(3), 157-178. doi:10.1080/01972241003712199 -- Hilbert, M., & López, P. (2011). The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information. Science, 332(6025), 60 -65. doi:10.1126/science.1200970 -- Hilbert, M., Miles, I., & Othmer, J. (2009). Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(7), 880-896. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.01.00