The competitive balance in Dutch soccer

Most sports are interesting because the outcome of a game can not be predicted perfectly in advance. Indeed, sometimes sports organizations try to maximize the uncertainty associated with outcomes of games by restricting the behaviour of teams and players so as to maximize public interest. The degree of competitiveness in a league is also known as competitive balance. In this paper we propose a very simple model to analyze the outcome of soccer matches. The parameters of this model are used to assess whether the competitive balance in Dutch professional soccer has decreased or increased over time. Keywords: Professional soccer, ordered probit,competitive balance