Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we examine the joint performance of FDI and trade under a full liberalization process consistent with New Trade Theory models. The testing framework consists of the estimation of demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the US and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors, not only the traditional determinants of trade, but also new ones, such as the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply a variety of panel unit root and cointegration tests to the cases of both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI.