Environmental change and fishery management in the northern Persian Gulf

Approximately 52% of the 380,000 tons of fish landings in Iran come from the northern Persian Gulf, with a total of 108,000 fishermen and 8900 fishing vessels (2003 data). The fishery in the region is very important for the local economy, but the major problems facing the Iranian fisheries are an uncertain availability of fish and over-fishing. The Persian Gulf is a sensitive marine ecosystem. The Gulf is a partially enclosed sea with an average depth of 35 metres and replacement of waters take some three to five years. Environmental factors have a major effect on fish stocks and fisheries in such a sensitive ecosystem. This study examines the influence of environmental changes in water temperature, rainfall, wind and sea level pressure on fish stocks in the northern Persian Gulf and estimates the maximum sustainable yields for fisheries management. Multivariate data and surplus production bio-economic models with environmental parameters are used to determine optimal harvest and forecasting. The study found that rainfall, water temperature and wind had significant positive effects whereas sea level pressure had a negative effect on the fisheries in the northern Persian Gulf. It is concluded that environmental parameters should be monitored concurrently with the fisheries to allow a greater understanding for fisheries management in the Persian Gulf.environmental parameters, Persian Gulf, fisheries, optimal catch, regression analysis,