Residential care for older persons in Belgium : Projections 2011 – 2025 - Synthesis

24 p.ill.1. INTRODUCTION 3 -- 2. LONG-TERM CARE IN BELGIUM: ORGANISATION AND FINANCING 3 -- 3. LONG TERM CARE MAIN SERVICES 4 -- 4. MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSIBILITIES 5 -- 4.1. DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITIES 5 -- 4.2. PROTOCOL AGREEMENTS 5 -- 4.3. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PROGRAMMING CRITERIA FOR HOMES FOR THE ELDERLY AND NURSING HOMES 6 -- 5. TRENDS IN LONG TERM CARE SUPPLY AND USE 7 -- 6. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 8 -- 7. ELABORATION OF A LONG-TERM CARE PROJECTION MODEL 8 -- 7.1. LITERATURE REVIEW: THE DETERMINANTS OF LONG-TERM CARE USE BY OLDER PERSONS 8 -- 7.1.1. Predisposing variables 8 -- 7.1.2. Need variables 9 -- 7.1.3. Enabling variables 9 -- 7.2. LITERATURE REVIEW: LONG TERM CARE PROJECTION MODELS 9 -- 7.2.1. Models characteristics 9 -- 7.2.2. Models results 10 -- 7.3. AVAILABLE DATABASES IN BELGIUM TO BUILD A PROJECTION MODEL 11 -- 7.4. MODEL SPECIFICATION 11 -- 7.5. MODELLING DISABILITY USING THE HEALTH INTERVIEW SURVEY 12 -- 7.6. MODELLING TRANSITIONS IN LTC SITUATIONS 12 -- 7.6.1. Estimation strategy 13 -- 8. PROJECTED EVOLUTION IN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 14 -- 8.1. OVERALL EVOLUTION, BASE SCENARIO 15 -- 8.1.1. Characteristics of the base scenario 15 -- 8.1.2. Results of the base scenario 15 -- 8.2. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 19 -- 8.2.1. Alternative scenarios on disability 19 -- 8.2.2. Alternative scenarios on household situation 19 -- 8.2.3. Alternative scenario on home care 19 -- 8.2.4. Results of the alternative scenarios 20 -- 9. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS 22 -- 9.1. RESIDENTIAL CARE CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS 2010-2025 22 -- 9.2. GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION 22 -- 9.3. SENSITIVITY TO ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT DISABILITY AND LIVING SITUATION 22 -- 9.4. EXPANDING HOME CARE INSTEAD? 23 -- 9.5. THE PROJECTIONS IN LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE 23 -- 9.6. STAKEHOLDER MEETING 2